Route 37 · 26 regions, every event
26 regions × 8 strong El Niños, recomputed.
On 28 September 2026 Zeke Hausfather published a table in The Climate Brink: for 26 places with a textbook El Niño impact, how often each of the 8 strong El Niños since 1957 delivered it. We rebuilt it from our own data pipeline with his rules, to check it and to extend it: every call, the events before 1951, and whether each answer survives losing any one event.
The grid
Where they are
hit count, modern 8Where our table and his differ, and why
Nine contrast checks
regions that should not, or should only sometimes, respondZeke's contrast boxes test the edges of the story: the Indian monsoon in the developing year and the year after, places where El Niño's reputation outruns the evidence (the Sahel, the UK and central Europe, Scandinavia), and alternative boxes for the Mekong. A textbook map is only as good as the places where it should stay quiet.