Route 08 · Trajectory
What comes after a super El Niño?
A strong El Niño spends the heat stored along the equator, and the deficit it leaves often tips the Pacific into La Niña. For the southern U.S. that can mean the drought returns a year later. This route matches the whole path, the last three years plus the forecast, against every path since 1940, and shows what happened next.
The path so far
Winters by Dec–Feb MEI-ERA5The paths that match
This event's path, the 51 SEAS5 members, and the analogs
The winter after
What the analogs did next
The phase of the winter that followed each matching event (Dec–Feb MEI-ERA5, ±0.5σ).
After every strong El Niño since 1940
The same question asked without any matching: every winter with Dec–Feb MEI-ERA5 of +1.5σ or more, and the winter after it.
| Strong winter | DJF MEI | Next winter | Next DJF |
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