Crops remember the sequence.
The single-event story of ENSO and crops is well known: El Niño dries Australia, southern Africa and Southeast Asia, La Niña dries Argentina and the U.S. Plains. Sorted by regime, the record says more. In second- and third-year La Niña harvests, 2 or more of the top five maize producers failed together in – years, against – neutral years. Argentina's maize was below the neutral median after – second-or-later La Niña winters (–); South Africa's after – strong El Niños (–); Australia's wheat in – years while an El Niño developed (–). Across every crop and producer, – tests survive the correction for testing so many; those three are among them.
A harvest is read two ways: against the winter that opened its calendar year (“after”) and against the event developing through that year (“during”); southern-hemisphere and tropical crops need both. Yields are % of a LOWESS trend fitted on neutral years only.
Breadbaskets failing together
FAOSTAT 1961–2024How often 2 or more of the top five producers failed in the same year, by regime
The results that hold up, year by year
Every producer, every regime
8 crops, up to 16 producers eachU.S. yields since 1900
USDA NASSWhat did not hold up
Most crop-by-regime comparisons are noise. Rice, cocoa, coffee, soybeans and sugar cane, and every U.S. state series, have no cell that survives the correction; neither do the world yields of any crop except oil palm. National yields average regions with opposite responses, and prices, policy, pests and war move them as much as the weather. – of the test families have no survivor at all.
What 2026–28 implies
The forecast view with confidence tiers is on Fall/winter 2026–27 in context; the farm-level view is on Agriculture.