{
 "updated": "2026-11-12T10:17:34Z",
 "site": "https://forecastelnino.com/trajectory",
 "next_winter": {
  "season": "2027–28",
  "probs": {
   "la_nina": 0.6,
   "neutral": 0.4,
   "el_nino": 0.0
  },
  "distinct_analogs": 5
 },
 "analogs": [
  {
   "label": "1997–98",
   "anchor": "1998-02",
   "members": 51,
   "share": 0.2,
   "next_phase": "la_nina",
   "next_djf": -1.15
  },
  {
   "label": "2015–16",
   "anchor": "2016-02",
   "members": 51,
   "share": 0.2,
   "next_phase": "neutral",
   "next_djf": 0.13
  },
  {
   "label": "1982–83",
   "anchor": "1983-02",
   "members": 51,
   "share": 0.2,
   "next_phase": "neutral",
   "next_djf": -0.46
  },
  {
   "label": "2023–24",
   "anchor": "2024-02",
   "members": 51,
   "share": 0.2,
   "next_phase": "la_nina",
   "next_djf": -0.53
  },
  {
   "label": "1972–73",
   "anchor": "1973-02",
   "members": 51,
   "share": 0.2,
   "next_phase": "la_nina",
   "next_djf": -1.77
  }
 ],
 "path": [
  {
   "season": "2014-15",
   "djf": 0.61,
   "phase": "el_nino"
  },
  {
   "season": "2015-16",
   "djf": 2.24,
   "phase": "el_nino"
  },
  {
   "season": "2016-17",
   "djf": 0.13,
   "phase": "neutral"
  },
  {
   "season": "2017-18",
   "djf": -0.45,
   "phase": "neutral"
  },
  {
   "season": "2018-19",
   "djf": 0.91,
   "phase": "el_nino"
  },
  {
   "season": "2019-20",
   "djf": 0.63,
   "phase": "el_nino"
  },
  {
   "season": "2020-21",
   "djf": -0.94,
   "phase": "la_nina"
  },
  {
   "season": "2021-22",
   "djf": -0.92,
   "phase": "la_nina"
  },
  {
   "season": "2022-23",
   "djf": -0.85,
   "phase": "la_nina"
  },
  {
   "season": "2023-24",
   "djf": 1.62,
   "phase": "el_nino"
  },
  {
   "season": "2024-25",
   "djf": -0.53,
   "phase": "la_nina"
  },
  {
   "season": "2025-26",
   "djf": -0.44,
   "phase": "neutral"
  },
  {
   "season": "2026-27",
   "djf": 3.11,
   "phase": "el_nino",
   "forecast": true,
   "p10": 2.96,
   "p90": 3.21
  }
 ],
 "skill": {
  "n": 82,
  "rpss": 0.026,
  "hit_rate": 0.415,
  "base_rate": 0.354,
  "clim": {
   "la_nina": 0.354,
   "neutral": 0.341,
   "el_nino": 0.305
  },
  "target": "DJF phase ten months after a February anchor (MEI-ERA5, ±0.5σ)"
 },
 "after_strong": [
  {
   "season": 1972,
   "djf": 1.53,
   "next_djf": -1.77,
   "next_phase": "la_nina"
  },
  {
   "season": 1982,
   "djf": 2.62,
   "next_djf": -0.46,
   "next_phase": "neutral"
  },
  {
   "season": 1991,
   "djf": 1.55,
   "next_djf": 0.87,
   "next_phase": "el_nino"
  },
  {
   "season": 1997,
   "djf": 2.76,
   "next_djf": -1.15,
   "next_phase": "la_nina"
  },
  {
   "season": 2015,
   "djf": 2.24,
   "next_djf": 0.13,
   "next_phase": "neutral"
  },
  {
   "season": 2023,
   "djf": 1.62,
   "next_djf": -0.53,
   "next_phase": "la_nina"
  }
 ],
 "method": {
  "distance": "sum_k exp(-k/12) [MEI(t-k) - MEI(tau-k)]^2, k = 0..35",
  "anchor": "2027-02",
  "init": "2026-11",
  "members": 51,
  "top_per_member": 5,
  "library": "February anchors 1943–2024 (MEI-ERA5)",
  "index": "MEI-ERA5 (provisional: r = 0.944 with MEI.v2)",
  "members_source": "cds"
 },
 "caution": "Leave-one-out skill of the analog vote is near zero; read as history, not a forecast.",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0: cite forecastelnino.com and the named sources"
}