{
 "site": "https://forecastelnino.com",
 "updated": "2026-11-12T10:19:37Z",
 "headline": {
  "index": "RONI",
  "value": 1.97,
  "period": "ASO 2026",
  "phase": "El Niño",
  "strength": "strong",
  "source": "NOAA CPC (ERSSTv5)"
 },
 "cpc": {
  "status": "El Niño Advisory",
  "synopsis": "El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance).",
  "issued": "8 October 2026",
  "next": "12 November 2026"
 },
 "latest_day": {
  "date": "2026-11-10",
  "nino12": 5.97,
  "nino3": 4.39,
  "nino34": 3.24,
  "nino4": 1.29,
  "source": "OSTIA daily, 1991–2020 day-of-year base"
 },
 "latest_week": {
  "week_centred": "2026-11-04",
  "nino34": 3.3,
  "nino12": 5.6,
  "nino3": 4.4,
  "nino4": 1.5,
  "source": "NOAA OISST v2.1 (CPC), 1991–2020"
 },
 "indices": {
  "oni": {
   "name": "ONI",
   "period": "ASO 2026",
   "value": 2.46,
   "units": "°C",
   "source": "NOAA CPC (ERSSTv5)",
   "preliminary": false
  },
  "roni": {
   "name": "RONI",
   "period": "ASO 2026",
   "value": 1.97,
   "units": "°C",
   "source": "NOAA CPC (ERSSTv5)",
   "preliminary": false
  },
  "mei": {
   "name": "MEI-ERA5",
   "period": "2026-11",
   "value": 3.715,
   "units": "σ",
   "source": "Forecast Network (celsius.earth) from ERA5",
   "preliminary": true
  },
  "era5n34": {
   "name": "Niño-3.4 (ERA5)",
   "period": "2026-11",
   "value": 3.34,
   "units": "°C",
   "source": "ERA5 via celsius.earth",
   "preliminary": true
  },
  "meirel": {
   "name": "Relative MEI-ERA5",
   "period": "2026-10",
   "value": 3.022,
   "units": "σ",
   "source": "Forecast Network (precip.earth) from ERA5",
   "preliminary": false
  },
  "meiolr": {
   "name": "MEI-ERA5 (MEI.v2 recipe)",
   "period": "JA 2026",
   "value": 2.527,
   "units": "σ",
   "source": "Forecast Network validation run, ERA5 with OLR",
   "preliminary": false
  },
  "meiv2": {
   "name": "MEI.v2",
   "period": "SO 2026",
   "value": 2.53,
   "units": "σ",
   "source": "NOAA PSL (JRA-3Q)",
   "preliminary": false
  },
  "soi": {
   "name": "SOI",
   "period": "2026-10",
   "value": -1.1,
   "units": "σ",
   "source": "NOAA CPC",
   "preliminary": false
  },
  "wwv": {
   "name": "Warm water volume",
   "period": "2026-09",
   "value": 3.16,
   "units": "10¹⁴ m³",
   "source": "NOAA PMEL (TAO/TRITON)",
   "preliminary": false
  }
 },
 "record_watch": [
  {
   "name": "Niño-3.4, daily",
   "current": 3.24,
   "current_when": "2026-11-10",
   "peak": 3.39,
   "peak_when": "2026-10-26",
   "record": 3.27,
   "record_when": "1982-11-10",
   "status": "new record",
   "forecast": false,
   "source": "OSTIA (Met Office / Copernicus), 1991–2020 day-of-year base",
   "since": "Oct 1981",
   "units": "°C"
  },
  {
   "name": "Niño-1+2, daily",
   "current": 5.97,
   "current_when": "2026-11-10",
   "peak": 6.02,
   "peak_when": "2026-11-09",
   "record": 5.01,
   "record_when": "1983-07-18",
   "status": "new record",
   "forecast": false,
   "source": "OSTIA (Met Office / Copernicus), 1991–2020 day-of-year base",
   "since": "Oct 1981",
   "units": "°C"
  },
  {
   "name": "Niño-3.4, weekly",
   "current": 3.3,
   "current_when": "week of 2026-11-04",
   "peak": 3.4,
   "peak_when": "week of 2026-10-28",
   "record": 3.0,
   "record_when": "week of 2015-11-18",
   "status": "new record",
   "forecast": false,
   "source": "NOAA OISST v2.1 (CPC)",
   "since": "Sep 1981",
   "units": "°C"
  },
  {
   "name": "Niño-1+2, weekly",
   "current": 5.6,
   "current_when": "week of 2026-11-04",
   "peak": 5.6,
   "peak_when": "week of 2026-11-04",
   "record": 4.5,
   "record_when": "week of 1983-06-29",
   "status": "new record",
   "forecast": false,
   "source": "NOAA OISST v2.1 (CPC)",
   "since": "Sep 1981",
   "units": "°C"
  },
  {
   "name": "Niño-3.4, monthly",
   "current": 3.25,
   "current_when": "2026-10",
   "peak": 3.25,
   "peak_when": "2026-10",
   "record": 2.72,
   "record_when": "2015-11",
   "status": "new record",
   "forecast": false,
   "source": "NOAA OISST v2.1 (CPC)",
   "since": "Jan 1982",
   "units": "°C"
  },
  {
   "name": "Niño-3.4 (ERA5)",
   "current": 3.34,
   "current_when": "2026-11",
   "peak": 3.34,
   "peak_when": "2026-11",
   "record": 2.84,
   "record_when": "1997-12",
   "status": "new record",
   "forecast": false,
   "source": "ERA5 via celsius.earth",
   "since": "Jan 1940",
   "units": "°C"
  },
  {
   "name": "ONI",
   "current": 2.46,
   "current_when": "ASO 2026",
   "peak": 2.46,
   "peak_when": "ASO 2026",
   "record": 2.59,
   "record_when": "NDJ 2015-16",
   "status": "below record",
   "forecast": false,
   "source": "NOAA CPC (ERSSTv5)",
   "since": "DJF 1950",
   "units": "°C"
  },
  {
   "name": "RONI",
   "current": 1.97,
   "current_when": "ASO 2026",
   "peak": 1.97,
   "peak_when": "ASO 2026",
   "record": 2.4,
   "record_when": "DJF 1982-83",
   "status": "below record",
   "forecast": false,
   "source": "NOAA CPC (ERSSTv5)",
   "since": "DJF 1950",
   "units": "°C"
  },
  {
   "name": "MEI-ERA5",
   "current": 3.71,
   "current_when": "2026-11",
   "peak": 3.71,
   "peak_when": "2026-11",
   "record": 3.16,
   "record_when": "1997-08",
   "status": "record not confirmed",
   "forecast": false,
   "source": "Forecast Network (celsius.earth) from ERA5",
   "since": "Jan 1940",
   "units": "σ"
  },
  {
   "name": "MEI-ERA5 (MEI.v2 recipe)",
   "current": 2.53,
   "current_when": "JA 2026",
   "peak": 2.53,
   "peak_when": "JA 2026",
   "record": 2.89,
   "record_when": "AM 1983",
   "status": "below record",
   "forecast": false,
   "source": "Forecast Network validation run, ERA5 with OLR",
   "since": "Jan–Feb 1940",
   "units": "σ"
  },
  {
   "name": "Relative MEI-ERA5",
   "current": 3.02,
   "current_when": "2026-10",
   "peak": 3.02,
   "peak_when": "2026-10",
   "record": 3.14,
   "record_when": "1997-08",
   "status": "below record",
   "forecast": false,
   "source": "Forecast Network (precip.earth) from ERA5",
   "since": "Jan 1940",
   "units": "σ"
  },
  {
   "name": "MEI.v2",
   "current": 2.53,
   "current_when": "SO 2026",
   "peak": 2.54,
   "peak_when": "JA 2026",
   "record": 2.85,
   "record_when": "AM 1983",
   "status": "below record",
   "forecast": false,
   "source": "NOAA PSL (JRA-3Q)",
   "since": "DJ 1979",
   "units": "σ"
  },
  {
   "name": "Niño-3.4, forecast peak",
   "current": 4.11,
   "current_when": "2027-01",
   "peak": 4.11,
   "peak_when": "2027-01",
   "record": 2.84,
   "record_when": "1997-12",
   "status": "forecast above record",
   "forecast": true,
   "source": "C3S 1-system consensus",
   "since": "Jan 1940 (ERA5)",
   "units": "°C"
  },
  {
   "name": "MEI-ERA5, forecast peak",
   "current": 4.1,
   "current_when": "2027-04",
   "peak": 4.1,
   "peak_when": "2027-04",
   "record": 3.16,
   "record_when": "1997-08",
   "status": "forecast above record",
   "forecast": true,
   "source": "ECMWF SEAS5, 51 members",
   "since": "Jan 1940",
   "units": "σ"
  }
 ],
 "license": "CC BY 4.0: cite forecastelnino.com and the named source"
}