The likelier third for each state this winter, from the 9 strong El Niño winters since 1950 plus the warming trend. Colour steps: 44, 56, 67, 78%+ for the likelier outer third (33% is climatology); grey: no clear side. With n = 9, odds move in steps of about 11 points.
Temperature, Dec–Feb 2026–27 Alabama: warm 33% · near 44% · cold 22% Arkansas: warm 56% · near 22% · cold 22% California: warm 56% · near 22% · cold 22% Colorado: warm 67% · near 0% · cold 33% Florida: warm 22% · near 67% · cold 11% Georgia: warm 44% · near 22% · cold 33% Connecticut: warm 89% · near 11% · cold 0% Arizona: warm 33% · near 44% · cold 22% Idaho: warm 78% · near 11% · cold 11% Illinois: warm 56% · near 44% · cold 0% Indiana: warm 67% · near 33% · cold 0% Iowa: warm 67% · near 33% · cold 0% Kansas: warm 67% · near 11% · cold 22% Kentucky: warm 56% · near 33% · cold 11% Louisiana: warm 22% · near 33% · cold 44% Minnesota: warm 78% · near 22% · cold 0% Mississippi: warm 56% · near 11% · cold 33% Maine: warm 67% · near 33% · cold 0% Maryland: warm 67% · near 33% · cold 0% Massachusetts: warm 89% · near 11% · cold 0% Michigan: warm 89% · near 11% · cold 0% Missouri: warm 56% · near 44% · cold 0% Montana: warm 67% · near 33% · cold 0% Nebraska: warm 67% · near 33% · cold 0% Nevada: warm 44% · near 22% · cold 33% New Jersey: warm 67% · near 33% · cold 0% New Mexico: warm 22% · near 44% · cold 33% North Carolina: warm 44% · near 22% · cold 33% Ohio: warm 67% · near 33% · cold 0% Oklahoma: warm 56% · near 22% · cold 22% North Dakota: warm 89% · near 11% · cold 0% New York: warm 67% · near 33% · cold 0% Pennsylvania: warm 67% · near 33% · cold 0% South Carolina: warm 44% · near 33% · cold 22% Tennessee: warm 56% · near 33% · cold 11% South Dakota: warm 67% · near 33% · cold 0% Oregon: warm 67% · near 22% · cold 11% Texas: warm 44% · near 22% · cold 33% Utah: warm 56% · near 22% · cold 22% Virginia: warm 67% · near 22% · cold 11% Washington: warm 78% · near 11% · cold 11% Wisconsin: warm 78% · near 22% · cold 0% Wyoming: warm 67% · near 22% · cold 11% West Virginia: warm 67% · near 22% · cold 11% Vermont: warm 89% · near 11% · cold 0% Delaware: warm 67% · near 33% · cold 0% New Hampshire: warm 78% · near 22% · cold 0% Rhode Island: warm 89% · near 11% · cold 0% Cold Warm
Precipitation, Dec–Feb 2026–27 Alabama: wet 67% · near 11% · dry 22% Arkansas: wet 44% · near 44% · dry 11% California: wet 56% · near 33% · dry 11% Colorado: wet 22% · near 22% · dry 56% Florida: wet 78% · near 22% · dry 0% Georgia: wet 67% · near 33% · dry 0% Connecticut: wet 44% · near 11% · dry 44% Arizona: wet 67% · near 33% · dry 0% Idaho: wet 0% · near 44% · dry 56% Illinois: wet 33% · near 56% · dry 11% Indiana: wet 22% · near 67% · dry 11% Iowa: wet 78% · near 22% · dry 0% Kansas: wet 78% · near 22% · dry 0% Kentucky: wet 22% · near 78% · dry 0% Louisiana: wet 56% · near 22% · dry 22% Minnesota: wet 33% · near 44% · dry 22% Mississippi: wet 56% · near 22% · dry 22% Maine: wet 56% · near 0% · dry 44% Maryland: wet 56% · near 22% · dry 22% Massachusetts: wet 44% · near 11% · dry 44% Michigan: wet 22% · near 67% · dry 11% Missouri: wet 67% · near 33% · dry 0% Montana: wet 0% · near 11% · dry 89% Nebraska: wet 89% · near 0% · dry 11% Nevada: wet 33% · near 67% · dry 0% New Jersey: wet 56% · near 0% · dry 44% New Mexico: wet 78% · near 22% · dry 0% North Carolina: wet 56% · near 33% · dry 11% Ohio: wet 11% · near 56% · dry 33% Oklahoma: wet 89% · near 11% · dry 0% North Dakota: wet 11% · near 67% · dry 22% New York: wet 56% · near 0% · dry 44% Pennsylvania: wet 56% · near 0% · dry 44% South Carolina: wet 56% · near 33% · dry 11% Tennessee: wet 33% · near 44% · dry 22% South Dakota: wet 22% · near 67% · dry 11% Oregon: wet 44% · near 22% · dry 33% Texas: wet 67% · near 22% · dry 11% Utah: wet 22% · near 78% · dry 0% Virginia: wet 56% · near 33% · dry 11% Washington: wet 44% · near 11% · dry 44% Wisconsin: wet 56% · near 11% · dry 33% Wyoming: wet 11% · near 44% · dry 44% West Virginia: wet 33% · near 33% · dry 33% Vermont: wet 56% · near 0% · dry 44% Delaware: wet 56% · near 22% · dry 22% New Hampshire: wet 56% · near 0% · dry 44% Rhode Island: wet 56% · near 11% · dry 33% Dry Wet